Risk assets have been in the midst of a pullback recently, the inevitable correction that comes at some point after a long, low volatility advance. The markets have a way of reminding us every now and then that there is still risk in investing. The decline comes in October, a time notoriously associated with previous [...]
The U.S. economy continues to build on the strength we reported in last month’s commentary. The ISM manufacturing index is near a 10-year high. Car sales are the strongest in over eight years. Job creation continues to be solid and last Friday’s data on domestic retail sales revealed a 0.6 percent increase for August. Falling [...]
In our July update, we observed that the U.S. economy appeared to be in the middle stage of an expansion. Nothing in the last four weeks has happened to dramatically change that outlook on the domestic front. We were a little disappointed with June’s retail sales growth of just .2%, but think it will rebound [...]
As we enter the second half of the year, the U.S. economy remains in the middle stage of an expansion that we believe still has plenty of room to run. Private sector job creation reported early this month reflected acceleration and the strongest six month readings since 2006 - dropping the unemployment rate to 6.1%. [...]
In recent newsletters we have been explaining our expectations for a moderate, but sustainable and accelerating, U.S. and global recovery this year – something we have called the Big Thaw. Data continues to support this view, with May’s U.S. employment report showing the economy added 217,000 jobs for the month, slightly beating expectations. The unemployment [...]
Last month, we voiced our expectations that investors would continue to witness a moderate but sustainable global recovery as we move through 2014 – what we called The Big Thaw. Since then, new developments have mostly supported this view. In the U.S., the economy added 288,000 jobs in April, beating expectations and bringing the unemployment [...]
The first day of spring, March 20th, was a welcome sight after a long, hard winter in most of the country. The transition to warmer, friendlier weather is coming at a time when the economic climate seems to be improving as well. Recent data is coming in much stronger after a winter lull in which [...]
Did you see the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Sochi? A teddy bear as large as a building, representative of Russia, shed a tear and blew out the Olympic flame. Since then, the Russian bear has grown a good deal more aggressive. Russian troops now occupy the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine, where a [...]
This is the month of St. Valentine’s Day, and it occurred to me that romances sometimes move in cycles, not unlike the business cycle. Think about it, after an initial meeting and getting-to-know-each-other period, a new romantic relationship may develop into something very intense. Then, eventually, it will probably either settle into something stable and [...]
“Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.” - Vince Lombardi Overview: A time to assess. Watching the holiday football games, it struck me that those of us who follow the markets for a living have a similar job to football scouts. We evaluate the competitors in a great global contest, the free market, trying [...]