Summer is almost over. I kind of hate to see it go, but the escalating heat makes you glad for the coming respite of fall – especially here in Texas. You could say the same thing about the markets; as the summer wears on volatility usually rises. This happens because trading volume diminishes and the [...]
In the 1939 classic, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, you may recall Dorothy Gale was a young orphaned farm girl from Kansas who had been swept away from her aunt and uncle’s home by a tornado. In her desperate journey to get back home she ran across numerous obstacles along the way. At one point [...]
Some of you may recall a popular English crooner named Engelbert Humperdinck. He hit it big in the late 60’s and early 70’s with several songs, including one titled, “After the Lovin”. The lyrics to the song went something like this, “Thanks for taking me on a one way trip to the sun And thanks [...]
I began 2015 with expectations of a global economy that would accelerate as the year progressed. Growth would be fueled by new contributions from primarily Europe and Japan - the result of an unprecedented easing from the central banks of these two important areas. In retrospect, I (along with most everyone else) didn’t expect such [...]
The latest economic data on the U.S. economy seems to suggest that once again in this multi-year expansion we have hit a soft patch. For example, the March U.S. nonfarm payroll report was the weakest in over two years; only 126,000 non-farm jobs were created. This comes on the heels of 12 straight months of [...]
Deflationary pressures have dogged the global economy since the Great Recession ended in February of 2010. The economic downturn left the world with overcapacity and indebtedness that is slowly being worked off. Among the developed nations, the U.S. has probably made the most progress in that direction. Progress has been tougher for Europe and Japan. [...]
U.S. large cap stocks were a stand out performer in 2014. A relatively strong U.S. economy juxtaposed against generally weak global growth and heightened deflationary pressures made the U.S. look like the safest place to invest in the world. A plunge in oil prices beginning around midyear only served to intensify global deflationary concerns still [...]
If we had to use one word to summarize our view of 2015, the word would be “divergence.” While this could also aptly describe many markets of the past, we think the word may be especially appropriate now. In 2015 we are/will be seeing: divergent beneficiaries from the recent oil price collapse, divergences among Central [...]
Rapidly falling oil prices have given the markets a case of the jitters. It’s a little like the nervousness we all felt as children entering a new school – a little uncertain about what the coming year will hold. Make no mistake, lower oil prices are beneficial for much of the world, like an instant [...]
Globally, risk assets have enjoyed a solid rebound from last month’s sell-off. While this reflects improved market sentiment since mid-October, viewed from a broader perspective it also reflects increased volatility, which is tied to: (1) anxiety surrounding the long-anticipated end of quantitative easing in the U.S., (2) the uncertain timing of Federal Reserve interest rate [...]